Monday
Sep022013
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill The 50 to 1 project
Sep 2, 2013 Climate: WG3 Oh my goodness, this is fantastic stuff from Topher's 50 to 1 Project.
Lots more videos here.
Sep 2, 2013 Climate: WG3 
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Reader Comments (36)
An excellent video. Did anyone else spot the units error?
I think I'll send it to More or Less and see what Tim Harford makes of the numbers.
Update: Just sent a request to More or Less.
Outstanding.
Can we look forward to seeing this transmitted soon, unedited, on a mainstream channel such as BBC1?
Actually, 'Dave', 'Quest' or similar would do. I've seen some decent stuff broadcast for the first time there recently, like Dara O'Briaiaiaiannn's maths programme.
Excellent. Just off on holiday and that sends me off on a cheerful note. Ridicule is always the best weapon.
At last, a light has been directed onto the biggest elephant in the room. The "Precautionary Principle"
Excellent!
Well done, Topher.
Tell it how it is and not what the politicians want us to believe.
Plus we don't have to look far to find out who is reaping the benefits of all this ludicrous expendiuture!!!
.............. The politicians themselves and their crony scientists, paymasters, NGOs and all the others who are pushing the CAGW mantra for all it's worth against the empirical evidence to the contrary
The logic is clear, but since it's presented by known "evil deniers" who state (oh, heresy!) that we can actually do a lot "without changing our lifestyles", it lacks the moral appeal that has got so many on the green bandwagon. Where are the pictures of polar bears?
As with many man made 'solutions' to a supposed 'disease'. It's not the symptoms which are gonna kill me but the 'cure'.
Very good video and a concise and clear use of data not that the screaming greenbies will listen to or watch any of this !
Excellent. But it does not touch on the "emotional" issues...Poley bears, homeless Maldive Islanders, squillions of climate refugees, crop failure, disease vectors..etc which are much harped upon. Yes, it may be cheaper and easier and better generally to adapt to them rather than try to avoid them...but...oh...the HUMANITY.
Plus the Stern Report is a load of old pony and I would be reluctant to ascribe ANY validity to it even if it were, as here, just to take it as an alarmist guesstimate of costs.
Good one to send to the politicos, though, and a fine piece of work, with cameos from most of my heroes!
Jack Savage:
The rhetorical point in using Stern is to use their own figures so they cannot disown the analysis.
Yes - Stern fiddles the discount rate so that half the costs occur after the year 2800. But Stern and his acolytes can hardly take issue with an analysis based on Stern's figures.
Every popular political effort has great slogans and phrases. The Greenies do it all the time. This video may have produced one that should always be used. At the end:
Stop The Fear. Start Thinking!
And had historic note from FDR's famous "nothing to fear but fear itself". Imagine a conversation where the Greens bloviate about insurance, bears drowning, Al Gore defaulting on his mortgages, etc., and you use that phrase. Then mention even the great FDR knew Fear for what it was - just Feat. OBTW, loved Nova's "barking mad".
Philip B
I didn't spot the units error. Be sure to let Topher know.
Worth noting that "government waste" actually means "legalised channelling of taxpayers' money to those with public sector connections", and as such is surely the biggest single 'industry' in the UK (and the world), with a commensurately powerful lobbying influence. Hence the enthusiasm for 'climate change' among people with no personal integrity.
And as for an alternative use for that ocean of Other People's Money, how about not stealing it in the first place? Too radical?
This video should be sent to David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Davey - who should all be tied to chairs and MADE to watch it.
I seem to remember in his interview with Andrew Neil, that Ed Davey came out with the 'insurance' tosh.... (apart from also loudly quoting Cook's '97% of climate scientists'...)
I didn't watch it, but I have heard the arguments before and I am sure I would totally agree. The problem is that 97% of government funded wage slaves won't.
The full length videos are the mutt's nuts. I agree, it's a job extremely well done.
Michael Larkin
I agree with you. The short video (about 10 min.) is a very good hard hitting summary of the numbers etc. but the meat of the project is in the very professionally produced interviews. I have only had time to view two so far; Marc Morano and Dona Laframbois. If these are representative then I will certainly view the rest. I think these interviews should expose the myth that there is any sort of consensus the causes of the very modest global warming experience since the end of the little Iceage.
http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/#prettyPhoto
What an excellent video, which gets the message over very simply and elegantly - in terms which even the dumbest politician can understand. This ought to be mandatory viewing for every politician who is involved in setting the so called green agenda and who heap ever more taxes and costs on to the rest of us.
The interview with the contributors are excellent.
How can these be made to go viral?
Excellent.
However, it must be said that the video assumes familiarity with arithmetic which might make it inaccessible to Bob Ward, the BBC, and most of the UK.
I suggest a follow up cartoon about a paranoid fluffy koala bear who bankrupts first his koala family, then his koala village, then the koala nation, with unnecessary insurance polices (for progressively more ridiculous risks). He becomes a pariah koala, and dies in the outback.
(With no numbers or equations).
Yowser!
How do we post it as a link for others (or send on or whatever the current vernacular is)?
If you want to send this video link to people by email, copy the string below:
http://youtu.be/Zw5Lda06iK0
And paste into your email.
Please send it to all your contacts, twitter, and facebook followers!
"it must be said that the video assumes familiarity with arithmetic which might make it inaccessible to Bob Ward, the BBC, and most of the UK" - KT
***
As numbers are all the rage, I recall when the Graun rather rashly got behind 10:10 and kept CiF open a bit longer than usual when even the local loyals expressed doubts. Being generous, at plug-pulling, it was running at about 100:1 appalled.
In the BBC report of the Graun story, this was described as views being 'split'.
Semantically, they were 'accurate', of course.
The BBC may not be great with maths, but they do know their way around words.
Thank you, ZT. Will do (though I have already filched Ross Lea’s link, above).
Western nations are now on the wrong side of history.
Why? All religions agree: “Truth is victorious; Never untruth.”
FEAR of death from nuclear annihilation drove world leaders to join forces with leaders of the scientific community to deceive the public in 1945.
Here is a one-page synopsis of sixty-eight years (2013 – 1945 = 68 yrs) of deceit that brought us to the current turning point in history:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Synopsis.pdf
Here is the long version of the same information:
Http://theinternetpost.net/2013/08/12/the-creator-destroyer-sustainer-of-life/
World leaders will now admit their powerlessness over Nature and get honest with the public, or the combined forces of nations represented by the United Nations, all parts of the current and former United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, etc., etc. will go the way of the Roman Empire.
With kind regards,
- Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
One thing not mentioned unless I missed it: Adaptation is also a possible approach should the temperatures fall. Mitigation is not.
These links are to the mp3 audio files, at Tubescoop, that I stripped out from the Topher interview videos on Youtube so that BH readers can load them into their iPhones, Android devices and music players etc.
Anthony Watts
http://tinyurl.com/n4la7xn
Fred Singer
http://tinyurl.com/kxxw9k7
Joanne Nova
http://tinyurl.com/lv8gunn
Donna Laframboise
http://tinyurl.com/n7qpb7l
David Evans
http://tinyurl.com/oq2bx3m
Henry Ergas
http://tinyurl.com/lag69ag
Christopher Essex
http://tinyurl.com/kgurk43
Marc Morano
http://tinyurl.com/lywhg7q
I sent Joanne Nova an e-mail, to compliment her on her exposition of the case. She felt that Topher's questions were a bit too long (I'm not so sure, although some interviewers certainly do drag out their questions ad infinitum).
Joanne Nova forgets the question, at one point, before rebounding to make a characteristally powerful point, but, for me, that instant of forgetfulness shows that it's an authentic interview. Would Michael Mann ever permit an interview to appear, in which he knowingly displayed any of his many flaws?
Joanne Nova admitted to having looked "pretty tired" in the video. I don't blame her. I usually think of her as "tirelessly" campaigning for sense in this debate, but nobody, nobody is genuinely tireless. We owe so much to Joanne Nova, as well as to the other contributors to "50 to 1", as well as to the Bishop, for shedding light on the alarmist scam.
Bebben
The last sentence in Fred Singers interview says it all.
http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/#prettyPhoto/8/
Click on the thumbnail.
This is definitely a job for More or Less, as Philip Bratby suggests.I will also send off an email to them.
I have not watched them all yet, but the full length David Evans interview is devastatingly good.
David Evans interview - video
David Evans interview - MP3
It bothers me that there seems to be an acceptance of AGW, but it's all down to to the cost of controlling it as opposed to adapting to it. Although Topher does say "as and if it happens", there is not enough emphasis on the "if".
Interesting video - the impact of which somewhat lessened by the crass "No-thank-EU" ad on behalf of the tobacco industry situated at the top of the webpage. Mr Bishop Hill I suggest you remove this from your website.
Good to see what people look like: Donna, Anthony, JoAnna. Just like it was god seeing the Bish on the video a few weeks back.
A good slogan came from this as well:
"Stop fearing and start thinking."
And a neat smackdown to the insurance analogy: "would you buy home insurance that costs more than the house is even worth and may not pay out?"
Finally watched it. Has the case for policy scepticism ever been put better? And Chris Essex's final
is in fact everything the person in the street needs to hear. A masterpiece for the YouTube age.
Excellent stuff. The individual interviews are excellent, if you can find the time. Not through all yet. But Evans and Laframboise (great name!) very good.
Morano I find a little too excitable.
I wish Monbiot would make the effort to listen. I think he still has the potential to U-turn on this one day. He already seems to be taking a bit more of a back suit on AGW. I think he's frustrated at the relatively weak defence presented by the pros, and is doing a little watching and waiting.