Bishop Hill Precedented
Feb 16, 2014 Climate: WG2 While we have heard a great deal in recent weeks about the unprecedented nature of the floods, this article by Terry Marsh of the National Hydrological Monitoring Service should calm things down a bit:
Tidal flooding is expected to increase as thermal expansion of the oceans, supplemented by meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets, increases sea levels. The risk of flooding from groundwater may also increase if winter rainfall rises appreciably.
However, the outlook in relation to fluvial (river) flooding is much less clear cut. This can be well illustrated by flow patterns in the Thames, for where the recent flooding has been most extensive. The Thames we have one of the longest continuous flow records in the world. Systematic flow measurement began at Teddington in 1883; there is also a wealth of documentary evidence relating to historical floods.
You need to read the whole thing.
Reader Comments (8)
this article by Terry Marsh of the National Hydrological Monitoring Service should calm things down a bit
Why do you think that, sadly it will make no difference at all, Millipede and Davy will still be spouting their bile until the daisies grow over their graves.
I have never heard of Terry March but I have to say that this
article is one of the most sensible pieces of reporting that I
have read about the recent flooding.
Dare I say it is objective. Yes I think it is.
Unfortunately for this report thermal expansion of the oceans has reduced due to cooling, according to ARGO. And polar and glacial ice is on the increase.
Perhaps the only reason the Grauniad published this piece is that it does mention, quite a few times, about continued warming. When will these people look at the evidence that global temperatures have not been rising for 17 years and not been rising for 21 years in the UK. Or maybe it's just belief on their part.
Another point is about thermal expansion; how is thermal expansion explained when melting ice caps and glaciers must add a significant amount of cooling? Along with 17 years no warming, it doesn't seem to add up. Oh, maybe they are not melting quite so much as they believe.
Historical information here. Interesting to compare the jetstream position then and now.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/k/Mar1947.pdf
There are forty-eight locks/weirs between Cricklade and Richmond. When the EA took over running the Thames they fired all the lock keepers. How did they expect flooding to be controlled?
Terry Marsh supervised part of my wife's MSc over 30 years ago - he is a high quality individual. Having made a detailed study of the subject for 40 years, he has a reasonable chance of knowing more about it that that oaf Miliband, yet there is broad political agreement that people with views like Terry's are deniers, and go against overwhelming scientific evidence as (not) presented by Miliband or Slingo.
Don't get it?
Me neither.
Fluvial floodplains are created by many flood events over millenia. It would be astonishing if they didn't flood. And if you look at just how big the floodplains are, including areas that have not flooded this time, and are aware of the huge gravel extraction industries around our major rivers (eg I am on the hampshire avon) extracting gravel from the ancient channel courses of the river, then you realise that the idea these floods are "unprecedented" is quite frankly laughable.