Bishop Hill Behind the energy industry scenes
Feb 8, 2014 Energy: grid This video of a panel debate at the Energy Institute last autumn is very interesting. Chaired by Ian Marchant of SSE, with Steve Holliday of National Grid, Charles Hendry the former energy minister, and lastly Simon Roberts from Bristol's Centre for Sustainable Energy.
I particularly enjoyed the bit at 9.00 when Holliday explalined that consumers are going to be facing a "different price dynamic" and a new world of intermittency. This thought was echoed at 13:00 when Roberts told us that we need to think about what happens in the consumer mind, for example whether they choose to flick a switch as opposed to sitting in the dark for a bit longer. He seemed uncomfortable with the idea that people might be able to have power when they wanted it and seemed also to think that his role was to tell people how to behave.
Also interesting was Charles Hendry's enthusiasm for central planning (22:00). I'm slightly bemused by his idea that a profit seeking business would run down its plant in order to deliver price security to customers. He also made the surprising admission (31:30) that we don't know if the price of renewables is going to come down sufficiently to make them affordable in the longer term.
Reader Comments (33)
I don't think many consumers of lekky 'think of their role' at all, other than being the poor saps who pay the huge bills imposed upon them by the panellists.
Seems to me that these guys should spend a lot more time on the nitty gritty stuff of delivering cheap reliable power when their customers want it and less on their airy fairy schemes to Save the Planet and Make Us Better People.
'He seemed uncomfortable with the idea that people might be able to have power when they wanted it and seemed also to think that his role was to tell people how to behave.'
Which means what for the price of energy ? if you cannot make use more you can still make them pay more for what they 'can get '
While such an issues is a green fantasy,for example consider that the opposition to fracking is becasue its a real threat to the energy crisis the greens 'want to see ' for they see such an event as an opportunity to force unto to people ideas otherwise they never consider, such as end to motorised personal transport, and as 'punishment ' of evil humans being nasty to the planet. Come up zero pollution , cheap and endless supply of energy and one of those leading the counter charge to it would be the l greens .
Holliday is a mining engineer who clearly thinks the diamond business model is the way forward.
Expect riots.
I find it worrying that the Holliday thinks that smart meters, better insulation and using LED bulbs etc is going to significantly reduce GB winter peak demand, such that rolling blackouts can be avoided when the wind does not blow. Despite now having 40GW capacity of wind and solar, the Germans have seen sense, and started to urgently build 19 new coal power stations. I still think the rot in our electricity supply industry started when the senior engineers who ran it prior to privatisation were sidelined and replaced by supermarket managers.
It's not just the consumers sitting in the dark for a bit longer. It's the fact that business, commerce and everything else in our society will not be available. The consumers won't be able to go out to do a bit of shopping or go to the pub or restaurant till the lights come back on. They'll need to sit at home and guard their property against all the undesirables who will be making hay whilst thre lights are out.
Cameron provided £130 million for dredging rivers when faced with his version of the New Orleans' disaster.
All it needs is for an inner city social breakdown in an extended power cut and the windmill freaks will be told where to sling their hooks.
Hendry stepped down as Energy Minister in order to become Chairman of Forewind, the consortium that aims to snaffle 9GWx40% estimated capacity utilisation x 8760h/a x ~£100/MWh or over £3bn p.a. in subsidies for their North Sea wind farms. It is no surprise that he doesn't want anyone to think that their subsidies can be reduced. I see he is now "Amabassador" (how pompous!) for the Global Offshore Wind 2014 conference to be held in Glasgow at the SECC on 11/12 June, 2014. A date for your diary?
Unremarked here is this project to snaffle the largest subsidies of all - £305/MWh guaranteed price for marine/tidal power thanks to Ed Davey's Expensive Energy Bill:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26087779
The plans to extend to other sites, allegedly sufficient to meet 10% of the UK power supply (call that 35TWh/a) would entail subsidy of the order of £9bn p.a.
It is all rather being hidden in plain sight isn't it?........
" ... a new world of intermittency ..."
What I do not understand is that when "the power goes off", and the "lights go out", we can sit in the dark and, for those with battery operated radios or TVs, still be be entertained, but what happens to the chicken in the oven that has only been warmed up to (human) blood temperature? What will happen to home freezers? They can only keep food for so long without power! If something is taken out just before an 'intermission', it will reduce the length of time the food will stay frozen.
It will not only happen in homes across the lands, it will also happen in restaurant kitchens, supermarkets. In fact it will happen everywhere there is fresh food and the expectation that it is chilled to prolong its freshness as well as where electric cooking is done.
Any power cut part way through cooking will need alternative cooking methods to rescue the food, probably using a different fuel with a lot of messing about, and to stop the food going to waste or causing food poisoning.
Just think of all the food miles going to waste and the fuel to get the ambulance around to pick up the food poisoned!
It hasn't been thought through. But then, what is?
Off Topic but this from the NOAA on C3 looks to be quite important in terms of so Called Climate Sensitivity calculations.
http://www.c3headlines.com/2014/02/noaa-climate-impact-cumulative-co2-emissions-since-1880-nil-those-stubborn-facts.html
Robert - they have thought about it, and do have detailed plans for how to implement rolling blackouts. I suspect these were made for a Cold War national emergency situation, rather than windless days in cold winter periods in the early 21st Century, but the end result will likely be the same, darkness, hunger, and riots.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/reliability/downstream/page30313.html
see http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file35360.pdf and http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file30310.pdf
@Robert Christopher: behind the facade of greenie goodness, the real politics is a bit like the 1930s, the re-establishment of Eugenics and the permissible deaths in large numbers of 'the unfit'.
You see this in the 1993 creation by Al Gore of the term 'deniers' to equate those who oppose expensive electrical energy as equivalent to 'Holocaust deniers'. This was no random bit of politics: the people behind him and now Obama have always believed in Eugenics, to cull the population using as justification Agenda 21.
Obama's Chief Scientist Holdren was at the 1975 'Endangered Atmosphere' conference which led to the CO2 scam. It was co-organised by Margaret Meade, one of the originators of US Eugenics' theory in the 1920s.
no lekki while wotchin the Xfactor??
Bring out the rake
I wonder how many people are happy with the thought that NGOs, profiteers and troughers are discussing a future where electricity will be horrendously expensive, unreliable, intermittent and rationed, all to no public good. Where is the public consultation? This is a deliberate policy to ensure we become a third world country. How many people realise what is being planned for their future by these people and politicians without their knowledge?
In the Times today "Forget expensive river dredging and flood defences. One radical solution to chronic river flooding is entirely natural and virtually maintenance-free. The European beaver may be the answer to our prayers, thanks to its genius at building dams which help to prevent major rivers from flooding." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article3999742.ece behind the pay wall.
So while on the subject of bonkers ideas I'm surprised that the panel aren't advising us to get some oxen to turn our homemade electrical generators. But then if there is a prolonged power outage, service stations won't operate so hay distribution will fail. Supermarkets and home delivery will fail we'll end up cooking the oxen over a wood fire in the garden before we have to start eating the neighbours raw.
What would be rather nice is for the power to go off during these morons giving a talk. Then they might have a taste of what they would impose.
I seem to have a problem trying too post about a waste of subsidy on tidal power
If you register as a member (link in menus up top) you will find it easier.
Ptw suggests
'Bring out the rake'
I submit that tumbrils, stakes and environmentally-friendly sustainable faggots would be more appropriate.
Careful with using the noun 'faggot'; it could be misinterpreted therefore actionable!
Disgraceful - politiciancs should be representing the people's interests, not pushing through 'energy market reform' bills that benefit vested interests and UN policies!!
"He seemed uncomfortable with the idea that people might be able to have power when they wanted it" (Roberts)
Perhaps he would like to lead by example? A wind turbine should provide the necessary unpredictability...
MDGNN
Surely sustainable faggots are OK? :-)
The idea of comparing Lord Smith to minced pig offal does have a certain 'je ne sais quois'!
No politician who advocates policies that are likely to lead to power cuts will get my vote in any election. We need to make it crystal clear to them that the price of electric power cuts will be political power cuts, the only difference being that their careers will be finished for good.
We are increasingly going to pay more for less?
Who voted for this to happen?
Posted this link on another thread but it is just as relevant here:
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/02/the-dangers-of-certainty/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
I recommend watching the video clip, it sums up perfectly the behaviour of those who think they possess the ultimate truth.
The Bish as well as other BH contributors might fancy the opportunity to question Ian Marchant in Edinburgh at a seminar at the David Hume Institute at the Royal Society in Edinburgh on 18 March 2014.
http://www.scottishenergynews.com/event/ex-sse-chief-exec-marchant-to-give-keynote-david-hume-institute-address-on-the-challenges-facing-scottish-energy/
So, black outs and intermittent supply are not going to happen by accident, or by lack of forward planning.
Just like flooding of the Somerset Levels then!!
The best part is listening to Steve Holliday talking about smart technologies, smart grids, and other smart technologies. All of the "smart technologies" are, of course, systems for raising the price of electricity enough to suppress demand when renewable energy sources aren't providing enough power. Why would smart consumers want to pay for them?
Steve Jones
Thank you for that link. Powerful.
Don't light a candle, curse the darkness.