Bishop Hill Belgium shows us the way
Aug 17, 2014 Energy: grid Energy: nuclear In the comments to the previous thread, reader Wellers points us to a story from Belgium that looks very much as if it will presage the situation in the UK over the next year or two.
Belgian energy company Electrabel said its Doel 4 nuclear reactor would stay offline at least until the end of this year after major damage to its turbine, with the cause confirmed as sabotage.
Unfortunately, several other Belgian reactors have been shut down for maintenance in recent months due to what may be a generic flaw in the design - this seems to be the same issue that affected nuclear plant in the UK last week. The loss of Doel 4 therefore means that fully half of the country's nuclear capacity is offline. Doel 4 could be out for months, so guess what is going to happen.
Energy experts have raised the spectre of possible blackouts this winter and say Belgium will have to boost interconnection capacity with neighbouring countries to prevent power shortages.
The problem is that if there is a generic flaw in a common design of this kind of nuclear power plant, it is likely that neighbouring countries are going to have nuclear plant offline too. Whether anyone has much capacity to trade is therefore something of a moot point. One assumes that we may well be heading for a bidding war for electricity and that prices will go skywards.
Reader Comments (45)
Now, I wonder, who would have an interest in sabotaging a power station? Could it possibly be friends of Gazprom or Mr Putin? Or others with another agenda but who, equally well, will serve the role of useful idiots?
I predict the end of DECC, to lose its Energy Arm into the Department of Business.
They better hope for a mild winter , still if its not its good news for the French but possible bad news for the Germans has they ran down the rabbit hold so they will have to pay more of get less because renewable cannot cut it .
Let all the European countries use their interconnection capacity: problem solved! :)
Robert Christopher
Like taking in each other's washing, you mean?
I predict this winter is not going to be fun for any of us. My wood will be ordered tomorrow and the freezer will be well stocked by the end of next month. As will the supply of candles.
More details on the Belgian electrical supply-demand flows are provided in my comments (nos. 9 & 23) on the last thread, showing the reliance on 'renewables'. Weirdly, the press here in Belgium wonders whether emulating Sweden on renewable electricity might be the answer, forgetting the fact that most of this is hydro from the mountains - not exactly in abundance in the Low Countries!
Brussels is in Belgium, right?
Mike Jackson: buy a generator and lay up plenty of fuel or you will lose all the stuff in your freezer if electricity is lost.
Looks like it's going to be the countryside that suffers.
http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.english/News/140816_electricity_concerns
The Eurocrats in Brussels will stay snug & lit!
Couldn't happen to a nicer people. And now let me be serious for a moment. That our political classes, bamboozled, well-meaning, ignorant, drunk on an apparently endless supply of public money, led on by their civil servants, convinced that European prosperity is a given rather than an historical accident, have allowed themselves to be suckered into the global warming hysteria is as shocking alarming and disturbing as their craven appeasement of militant Islam.
We are truly led by fools.
And we are as truly about to discover the depths of their craven cretinousness. The world is a very much crueler place than these half-wits know.
Agouts.
You are quite correct and on all counts.
I hesitated and then did not say, "well said", because nothing will be well in Europe in the near term nor, will it be well in Europe's longer term and future prospects, which look dimmer by the month. You call them fools, you are far too polite.
I commented on the original thread along the lines that this is the sort of thing that forces even the most invertebrate politician to act.
Oh, and as a Dutch-born Aussie, can anyone comment on whether there will be any effect in The Netherlands? I have elderly relatives living there.
and the freezer will be well stocked by the end of next month. As will the supply of candles.
Aug 17, 2014 at 6:00 PM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson
Presumably your generator will be well stock with carburants or your freezer will be useless
Adam Gallon, keeping the urban centres lit up makes sense. In the country we can do without for a few days but in the city they would be slitting their neighbours throats for food or heat.
Athelstan:
As the bearer of so sturdy an Anglo-Saxon name, you will no doubt be as amazed as I am that a country such as Britain, recipient of similarly sturdy virtues of common sense, pragmatism and scepticism, should have allowed itself to be suckered in by so patently nebulous, incoherent and preposterous a notion as man-made global warming. More particularly, that it should have decided that the solution to this so-called problem is to lavish insane amounts of money on schemes which will do precisely nothing to solve the apparent problem but which will cause hardship to those least able to bear it while simultaneously crippling industry, in the process impoverishing us all yet further.
Slice it anyway you like, it is lunacy.
In fact, it is so mad, so unutterably stupid, so completely pointless, I almost wonder if it isn't a vast practical joke. Ho! Ho! and Ho! again.
Agouts, it may come as a surprise to you, but thousands of people on the blogosphere have said just that, over many years. What do you want, an elephant stamp for participation?
Meanwhile, we are discussing what is going to happen in Belgium this winter.
Johanna - the Netherlands is unlikely to be affected as electrical generation and distribution systems mostly lie within the national boundaries. Having said that, Electrabel (the Belgian electricity company) built their last power station (Maasvlakte, 0.8GW coal/biomass) over the border in Rotterdam. The problem will be to get the power over the border to Belgium where it's needed, due to transmission constraints.
Pull the plug on Brussels first. EUrocrats freezing in the dark would be a worthwhile and cost effective outcome.
Joanne:
Hate to disagree with you but Belgium is simply among the first to arrive in hell on a handcart.
Agout you said:
"And now let me be serious for a moment. That our political classes, bamboozled, well-meaning, ignorant, drunk on an apparently endless supply of public money,"
They are not well meaning etc: they are malevolent.
Are you using the word moot as the way Americans do?
An attack on a nuclear power station is actually a war crime;
Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), 8 June 1977.
Art 55. Protection of the natural environment
1. Care shall be taken in warfare to protect the natural environment against widespread, long-term and severe damage. This protection includes a prohibition of the use of methods or means of warfare which are intended or may be expected to cause such damage to the natural environment and thereby to prejudice the health or survival of the population.
Art 56. Protection of works and installations containing dangerous forces
1. Works or installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.
Gordon:
I disagree. Our political masters are not malevolent. They are, eyes bulging as the tax payer largesse rolls in, simply reassuring themselves that they are acting in all our better interests, interests which very happily coincide with theirs because they don't have to pay for them.
Never underestimate the pleasures of indulging finer feelings when someone else is paying.
Johanna:
Cynic supreme and (almost) your greatest fan, very little comes as a surprise to me. But what on earth, should it ever be at home, even roaming elsewhere, is an 'elephant stamp'?
So eco-terrorists are finally acting on their xenocidal madness. Russia is looking at a perfect storm of profits and leverage over the future of the West.
Another symptom of the eco-lunacy that has dominated the 21st century so far.
Agouts.
Yes, England is fiercely in me but I regard Britain as all of me.
I sense that, there is a heartfelt, a very real poignancy to your eloquent elegiac and my sentiments chime with and echo your words.
What to do about it, first things first. If we started yesterday - it will still take years to put right. That is, even if we had an administration which could first own up and then, to admit to the man made scandal. A climb down, which would seem to be as distant as the echo of the big bang. Ah but then, that would also take honesty and here in modern Britain, 'honesty' that substance is as rare as hen's teeth.
We are governed by a political class, who only look to personal aggrandizement, and never do they apply themselves for the common good - the welfare of the nation which bestowed upon them, power. Probity in public office? Ho ho ho and what is best for the people and nation of Britain - fell off the list long ago.
The green scam, a perfect vehicle for the political charlatans, threats of Armageddon through climate chaos, caused by man made emissions of a life giving gas. When you think about it, really it is a lie of stupendous audacity, a nebulous concept but one which they thought could never be challenged. It was an easy sell and how the racketeers in politics, corporate business, academia and the media latched on to it - it was the scam to end all scams. Across the globe, as the scales fall off people's eyes maddeningly and shamefully, it seems to me that, the only national administration still steadfastly maintaining even augmenting of this nauseous ponzi scheme is here, in Britain.
I will wait for the dish to grow cold and then beware, because the fire will descend upon me.
Bishop Hill said:
From this article it sounds more like the Belgian situation stems from a change of test equipment and taking a precautionary approach until it is determined whether they were false positives or not.
From that link: "During these inspections, the reactor pressure vessel was examined using a new kind of ultrasonic sensor. The utility informed the Belgian nuclear regulator, the Federal Agency for Nuclear Control (FANC), that these results indicated the possible presence of cracks in the vessel.
Electrabel intends to conduct additional examinations using a different type of ultrasonic sensor, which has given reliable results in the past. However, analysis of the second set of results will take some time, the utility noted."
The issues in the UK related to a 'boiler spine' which the Telegraph describes as "a forged metal tube which supports the weight of boiler tubes coiled around it." and sounds unrelated to the pressure vessel issues that the Belgians are looking closely at.
Is this a bad time to suggest to Belgians that they holiday in Australia this coming Winter?
It's our Summer and will be wonderfully warm with sandy beaches and lots of pretty girls and great food. ;)
All NH climate refugees are certainly welcome in Queensland. Bring lotsa euros. And since the government has scrapped the "carbon" tax, 97% of climate scientists agree that it will be at least 0.0038 deg C warmer than wonderfully warm.
Along with my Australian cousins, I have a spare bedroom and space on my back lawn for a couple of tents to accommodate any English or Scottish relatives who who wish to escape the NH Winter. Family in London and Yorkshire have my phone number and know that my barbecue is a big one, all set up for catering for large groups.
Thanks, wellers, good to hear that my even-more-decrepit-than-me relatives in The Netherlands will probably not be affected by this fiasco. Our lot come from the southern parts of South Brabant, very close to Belgium, so I was a bit worried.
Please keep us updated on developments. Since the Belgian media is not in English, we don't hear much about what is happening there.
Agouts, sorry for being a bit cranky, thanks for being kind about it - and Lord knows I need all the friends I can get, as Charlie Brown rightly said.
An "elephant stamp" is a rubber stamp on the back of the hand that used to be given out in primary school for good work or good conduct. No doubt it is banned these days for elf and safety reasons.
This is going to be used as a perfect example of why NOT to rely on nuclear power. There will be people explaining how this would not have happened if Belgium had MORE renewables and how using nuclear is unreliable. I kid you not.
It has to be remembered that there is a hardly a single nuclear power station in Europe that is less than 20 years old. More nuclear power stations are coming to the end of their lives and are not being replaced (except by wind and solar, renowned by the renewables industry for being reliable and obviously able to do baseload). There will be inevitably be more problems with old nuclear power stations before they reach the end of their lives. Where is the expertise needed to deal with the problems of old age?
JimB/Stephen Richards
I'm expecting the power cuts to be more of a nuisance than a danger since France is still reasonably reliable in these matters. After next winter the generator might be needed.
Given the winter I am anticipating, if there is a prolonged cut I shall simply open the freezer lid and the garage door and let nature handle things for me!
"Unfortunately, several other Belgian reactors have been shut down for maintenance in recent months due to what may be a generic flaw in the design" ...
Aug 18, 2014 at 1:20 AM | Gareth ... has already given a first indication about the flaws ...
the reactor vessel in Doel 3 and Tihange 2 has been made by RDM ( Rotterdamsche Droogdok Maatschappij - a big Dutch shipyard and heavy machine building company, gone bankrupt in the early 80's ) ... a total of 22 similar reactor vessels have been deliverd worldwide at that time ...
as all the other vessels worldwide, the Belgian ones have been subject of (most probably) rigorous and permanent inspections from their beginnings ... nothing was found wrong ... but then test equipment was changed in Belgium, and the "haircracks" ( I don't know whether that is English, but the Dutch word is "haarscheurtjes") were "discovered" ...
here is a document from the FANC (the Belgian government agency for all nuclear control) with more explanations ... http://www.afcn.fgov.be/GED/00000000/3300/3323.pdf
the Belgian reactors were stopped, the other 20 reactors simply went on producing ...
note1: I'm a civil engineer, and mechanical engineers should correct me if I'm wrong, but what my lectures in metallurgy and welding techniques taught me that it is EXTREMELY difficult to completely exclude these cracks in welding, even if you try to work on it by thermal conditioning ... and the problems worsens the thicker is your steel ... and nuclear vessels are vere thick steel ... so they have been there from day 1 ...
note2: Electrabel (the owner of all nuclear power plants over here, and now part of GDF-Suez) was for a very long time a monopoly in Belgium as to production and distribution of electricity ... nobody liked that, not the Government, nor the consumers ... so the monopoly was broken by (European and Belgian) laws some 15 years ago ... That, Electrabel didn't like, and since then relations between the ex-monopolist and the Belgian authorities have been on a low ... Culminating in recent years in the "nucleaire taks", a nuclear tax up and above normal income taxes that Electrabel has to pay the government for allowing them to "exploit and benefit from already long amortized nuclear power plants" ... Electrabel, or better GDF-Suez, have since then already hinted that they may still invest in power plants, "but not in Belgium" ... the fact that some power outtages might occur here this winter is probably something they don't like, but also something the will use for their benefit ... who could blame them ? ... (and on another note: who could NOT foresee all this ?)
I shall simply open the freezer lid and the garage door and let nature handle things for me!
Aug 18, 2014 at 8:40 AM Mike Jackson
The cats will be pleased to help out.
I bet the EU in Brussels won't go dark...
The assertion was made
"Unfortunately, several other Belgian reactors have been shut down for maintenance in recent months due to what may be a generic flaw in the design - this seems to be the same issue that affected nuclear plant in the UK last week"
Is clearly incorrect. The Doel reactors are an ENTIRELY different design to that of the Heysham and Hartlepool reactors and in any case the damage at Doel 4 is to the turbine NOT the reactor and appears to have been caused deliberately by someone turning off the pumps on the turbine lubrication system.
Gordon/Agouts
I have enjoyed your eloquence of exchange. I point out that if you didn't already know, that our slebs in the Westminster bubble hung their dirty washing out in public over their expenses scandals, not voluntarily, but because they got caught! They then quietly & unannounced, removed MPs expenses from the FYI Act! Their culpability knows no limits!
The political classes are getting away with this economic sabotage because the ordinary person does not see the cost of the folly. It would do everyone a world of good to have Europe suffer through a freezing winter, enough so that public anger would grow to a white hot intensity and burn down all the enviro-fascist infrastructure.
And further to my pessimistic view of the upcoming winter (Mr Black may well get his way!) our local paper is reporting that the storks are heading south already!
What that actually means I don't know but probably nothing good,
Athelstan:
I will happily share your dish once suitably chilled. But I fear it may be a long time coming. The eco-nutters are very firmly entrenched. It will take a lot to dislodge them.
Johanna:
No offence was taken because, plainly, none was intended. I am still your best friend.
Alan the Brit:
Says it all about our greedy, grubby, condescending MPs and their grotesque sense of entitlement.
Ducdorleans,
Hairline cracks is an appropriate term. I'm a Chemical engineer but I have had some minor experience in metallurgical matters. There is not a reactor vessel in existence that does not contain some minor cracks. That fact would scare the bejesus out of most people but the issue of concern is are the cracks going to propagate under normal and design conditions.
We used to use a an acoustic measurement technique to check for cracks in very large process reactors, 1500-1800psig, 80 feet tall by 12 feet in diameter. Highly sensitive microphones were attached to the reactor at multiple locations and the pressure taken up to a level above anything experienced in the prior twelve months of operation. Cracks could be located and sized as they would propagate slightly with the increased pressure. The skill is in assessing whether the cracks are significant and likely to lead to a failure within a reasonable time frame. Clearly not the black and white decision making process that most lay people assume is the basis of engineering. This is why skilled consultants can command high fees and why most are bald!!!
From http://www.afcn.fgov.be/GED/00000000/3400/3433.pdf:
(Executive Summary)
In 2012, indications were found inside the shells of the Doel 3 and Tihange 2 reactor pressure vessels (RPVs). A series of analyses, tests, and inspections have shown that these indications are hydrogen flakes that do not affect the structural integrity of either RPV, regardless of the operating mode, transient, or accident condition. An independent review team consisting of national and international experts and academics confirmed this outcome. The results of the investigations were synthesized in comprehensive Safety Case Reports, and submitted to the Federal Agency for Nuclear Control (FANC) in December 2012. On 30 January 2013, the FANC provided Electrabel with a Provisional Evaluation Report emphasizing that the licensee has performed a profound piece of work, that the information was given in all transparency, and that the reports are of excellent quality. The FANC stated that it saw no elements that would have led to a permanent shutdown of the nuclear power plants. Nevertheless, the FANC asked for additional information before making a recommendation on a potential restart. This was summarized as a set of requirements in the Provisional Evaluation Report. In response, Electrabel submitted an Action Plan on 4 February 2013, which was discussed with the authorities. It was approved by the FANC on 7 February 2013 and started immediately. The present document gives a structured and complete answer to each of the FANC’s requirements for the Tihange 2 RPV. It also provides the results and conclusions of additional analyses, tests, and inspections that were performed to complement the Safety Case. The results of these complementary tests and analyses lead to the following conclusions:
UT inspection technique is valid
Hydrogen flaking is confirmed, understood, and stable
Affected material is sound and with good properties
Structural integrity is demonstrated with significant safety margins
Load test did not reveal any unexpected condition nor induced any flaw evolution
Based on all of these additional tests, analyses, and inspections, Electrabel is convinced that the structural integrity of the Tihange 2 RPV has been demonstrated and that all safety requirements are met. Therefore, Electrabel asks for the immediate restart of the Tihange 2 nuclear power plant.
(pg17)Moreover, the flaws are situated in very specific locations: the so-called ‘ghost lines’, which correspond to the residual features of the ingot after forging. ... Bridging was found to occur only between flakes that are very close to each other, under circumstances that exclusively exist during manufacturing.
(pg18)Ghost lines (veines sombres in French) are quasi-axial alignments of localized macro-segregated areas enriched in alloying elements and impurities. They correspond to the residual features after forging of segregates formed during the ingot solidification. These areas are flattened and fragmented during forging. Typical dimensions are 30 mm x 16 mm with a thickness of 0.5 to 1.5 mm. They are easily recognizable since they appear as dark zones after etching. Ghost lines are commonly found in all types of forgings.
Doesn't appear to be a problem, but it is good that they check so thoroughly.
Update from Belgium on the looming electricity crisis.
Yesterday there was more bad news regarding the two 1GW power stations already shut down in Belgium. They are probably shut down for good. See:
http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.english/News/140820_nuclear_reactors_out%253F
Predictably, the Energy Minister has come on air to try to allay the public’s fears. He appears to have a “cunning plan” as Baldrick would say. Here is a quick translation I made from today’s De Standaard newspaper:
“There is an extra power station, but the cable is missing”
The walls of the nuclear reactors at Doel 3 and Tihange 2 are much weakened as a result of thousands of cracks. That would appear from the interim test results. There is a significant chance that the reactors will remain shut down all winter, and perhaps will never operate again. According to Energy Minister Johan Vande Lanotte, speaking on ‘The Morning’ show on Radio 1, there are solutions to prevent a black out.
According to Johan Vande Lanotte it is now necessary to "prevent panic". According to Vande Lanotte the last time was that we had a very high energy demand was on 17 January 2013. "On such a cold winter day we consume about 14,000MW. From this we get the idea that current production is 1000MW too short" said the minister.
Emergency
The Minister proposes a number of the emergency measures: import more electricity from abroad, restart Doel 4, adjust supply-side demand from companies, and use the capacity of emergency generators in our country. According to Vande Lanotte this emergency generation capacity in our country is rarely utilised.
Also, it is little known by the public that there is overcapacity in generating networks in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. "For example in Maasbracht, 3 kilometers from the Netherlands-Belgian border, there is a new 1,300 MW power station completely idle." The gas fired plant in Maasbracht was indeed shut down on July 1 because it could not be run profitably due to low electricity prices. Much to the frustration of the minister this power station cannot yet be connected to the Belgian grid. The only thing missing is a cable of 15 km, it seems.
Nuclear Exit
The Minister does not believe that the government’s [nuclear phase-out] policy is guilty of causing the current problem. "It's the nuclear power plants that fail. If there is now a problem, due to the cracks in the reactor vessels and sabotage in Doel 4, you have to solve that. But government policy will never be able to prevent something being sabotaged or what appears to be a mistake.
************************************************************************************************************************
Anyone with 15 km of copper cable and 50 pylons should contact the Belgian Embassy.
Note that the comment about Maasbracht being uneconomic to run relates to it being uncompetitive vs. coal and subsidised wind, biomass, etc. The plant started up in 2012 and was hailed as the largest and most efficient gas-fired power plant of the Netherlands. See:
https://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/354304/rwe-technology-the-power-plant-specialist-in-the-rwe-group/company/news-press/press-release/?pmid=4008065