Bishop Hill Wildlife thriving in Chernobyl
Oct 6, 2015 Energy: nuclear Greens ;)
Pic Arctic Woof under CC licence https://www.flickr.com/photos/arcticwoof/7105477111To some extent, concerns over global warming have arisen as a direct result of environmentalists' scaremongering over nuclear energy. How much lower would carbon dioxide emissions have been if the world had gone nuclear in the 1960s?
That environmentalists were scaremongering is confirmed by a new paper in Current Biology, which reports long-term survey data from the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Despite numerous earlier studies reporting that radiation levels in the 1600 square miles zone are above dangerous levels, nobody seems to have passed the news on to the wildlife:
...our long-term empirical data showed no evidence of a negative influence of radiation on mammal abundance. Relative abundances of elk, roe deer, red deer and wild boar within the Chernobyl exclusion zone are similar to those in four (uncontaminated) nature reserves in the region and wolf abundance is more than 7 times higher. Additionally, our earlier helicopter survey data show rising trends in elk, roe deer and wild boar abundances from one to ten years post-accident.
Imagine then a world in which the world had not been set back half a century by a monstrous regiment of hippies.
Bishop Hill
The Conversation has a post about the paper too.
Bishop Hill
It's interesting to ponder what this tells us about the linear no-threshold model for ionising radiation. This is the idea that if lab rats are harmed by high doses of radiation then low doses must harm them too (you can't easily test this proposition in the lab because the effect is too weak).
Some recent research findings suggest that this could well be the case.
The LNT model... is inconsistent with biologic and experimental data, which show the nature and the effectiveness of immediate and delayed defense systems to vary widely with dose and dose rate. No convincing epidemiologic data support the LNT relationship. It has been said that for low doses, epidemiology faces its limits (166).
Reader Comments (58)
I already posted about this on unthreaded.
So low level radiation is good after all. Who'd have thought it? Certainly not the greens like Friends of the Earth and those pushing the 'Linear No Threshold Model'. £billions have been wasted on protecting people against the known benefits of low level radiation. Chernobyl animals thrive in exclusion zone without humans
It is not unexpected to those who understand radiation hormesis.
Why not? What is wrong with telling the truth?
Note the following very important statement from the paper:
Sounds familiar!
LOL, that's not "wildlife" as we know it, it is mutant greenie who missed the bus home.
I'll bet those hogs are paying a PR team to hype up the radiation threat. They have never had it so good without those pesky humans.
Re the latest update on the LNT model. The model has always been in doubt. Note the following:
The implementation of the hypothetical LNT model without any empirical evidence to support it, has cost society a fortune. Just like hypothetical AGW without any empirical evidence to support it, has cost society a fortune.
It is totally obvious that a fetus would never develop in its mother's womb if the LNT model were true, because it would be damaged beyond repair by the massive radiation from both its mother's body and from external radiation.
More camera-trap photos of a range of wildlife here:
https://wiki.ceh.ac.uk/display/NRT/Photographs+from+Sergey+Gaschak
People might be interested in the books by Wade Allison on nuclear power. His new book comes out in December.
Thanks Jonathan.
We've been fighting against the pervasive and unjustified radiation and anti-nuclear propaganda for as long as I can remember (50 years?)DNA repair systems were, and are poorly understood. Speaking from memory, there are about 19 different systems recognized. More non-canonical DNA damage response 'systems' are regularly uncovered.
As always 'policy' lags behind science and is dictated by the most superstitious.
And from Wade Allison's new book 'Nuclear is for Life: A Cultural Revolution'
There is no data to show that with more nuclear generation there would be less atmospheric CO2. CO2 output from natural emitters is far higher than our puny input. current levels can be considered as natural. Atmospheric CO2 levels are governed by temperature NOT the other way as assumed by alarmists.
It is not unreasonable to expect increased populations and diversity of wildlife in the absence of civilisation pressure. However this tells us nothing about the incidence of e.g. cancer or birth defects or about the longevity of individuals .
Statements like this always give me pause:
IMO they give a subconscious nod to the belief that any increase in CO2 is the cause of global warming (if such a thing exists). The unasked question has to be, would a world with lower carbon-dioxide levels be a better world?rats , as humans, die from adminstering 10* the rda of dihydrogenmonoxide..
compared that to how resilient they are to radiation.
It's a sheer myth that nuclear energy was stopped by green campaigners. In the UK it was stopped by the Thatcher government after they opened up the books, saw how expensive it was and realised it was more of a liability than an asset. We only managed to sell the industry off by offering it at a ludicrously low price and forcing the taxpayer to pay for clean-ups. The market preferred gas & coal then and still does. As long as the gas flowed, nuclear would always be on the back burner and no government since the abolition of the CEGB has bothered about making a plan for when the gas ran out.
Many years ago I remember finding research showing lower than normal cancer rates among people who received low radiation doses from Hiroshima-Nagasaki and (seperate paper) radiologists (I think British). I no longer work in a related field but I wionder if those claims ahave been substantiated. There is, I understand a plausible biological explanation.
Sreetcred makes me think this could inspire some pretty good fiction:
'Professor Jackson Jeepers, with a comfortable sinecure at a prestigious university, didn't want to go to Chernobyl. God knew he didn't want to go, his family warned him not to, he didn't even have a clear idea what good he could do once he got there, other than to hold a media event denouncing human activities and the harm they do to nature. No doubt in the back of his mind he thought: "If for some reason the radiation does poison me, maybe I'll gain super powers. Maybe I'll get to spend time with Jessica Alba or Halle Berry."
'Alas, the radiation--or something--did affect him, and he found himself turned into a wild boar, constantly pursued by wolves. What could he do? How could he get in touch with Jessica Alba? Follow his adventures as a slightly exotic mammal.'
Not only is the LNT model incorrect, it's positively damaging. because a low level of radiation is not only not damaging, it may be positively beneficial. See:
http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/36/113/36113744.pdf
for instance...
Harry, I read it as the Bish trying to show how the consequences of the greens' doom-mongering contributed to failure of another one of their doom-mongering projects. In other words, antinuclear Ken Rice from the 1970s and 1990s caused irreversible CO2 accumulations in 2015.
Most people believe that the benefits of better dental health outweigh the risk of ionizing radiation from x-rays.
Some people believe that the benefits of cheap, reliable, non-CO2 emitting electrical generation do not outweigh the risk of ionizing radiation from a well regulated nuclear power plant and its waste.
And then there is the proven risk of death, injury and property damage from natural gas.
The Cleveland East Ohio Gas Explosion occurred on the afternoon of Friday, October 20, 1944. The resulting gas leak, explosion and fires killed 130 people and destroyed a one square mile area on Cleveland, Ohio's east side.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_East_Ohio_Gas_explosion
I find it incredibly irritating that rather than rejoice in one less threat to humans, they celebrate the greater possibility of carbon free energy (which is useless and expensive).
From today's Wall Street Journal (in part) ...
[ ... ] As I’ve said many times, it is inconsistent for someone to be concerned about cutting carbon pollution and not support existing nuclear power. I should know; I used to be against nuclear power but changed my stance after realizing that without it we will likely fall short of our carbon-pollution goals.
In 2014 existing nuclear power accounted for just under 20% of this country’s electricity supply but was responsible for nearly two-thirds of all the carbon-free electricity we generated. The bottom line is that maintaining and preserving existing nuclear energy in this country is vital to achieving our clean energy and carbon-pollution reduction goals, and to do so we must start to value the low-carbon benefits it offers today.
Carol M. Browner
Washington
Ms. Browner served as EPA administrator from 1993-2001.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/reducing-carbon-without-reducing-quality-1444071207
...How much lower would carbon dioxide emissions have been if the world had gone nuclear in the 1960s?...
Human emissions would probably have been much lower. But total increase in CO2 would have been about the same, because most of it is natural, and the natural emissions seem to have been increasing.
However, none of this would be a problem, as CO2 has little if any effect on global temperature...
How much colder would we be if the world had gone nuclear in the 60s? Well, way lower if sensitivity to CO2 is high, only a little lower if sensitivity is low.
=================
Don't forget the video of a Chernobyl Fox making a sandwich has doing the rounds for a while. Not just any sandwich either. That fox could get a job working in McDonald's. The greenshirts might like to think that it has clearly been mutated by radiation, but that's only because they couldn't do the same.
Similar concerns regarding LNT model use appear to exist around the toxicology of fine particulates...
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3375488/
"We review empirical data on PM2.5 and mortality risks (and their precursors, inflammatory responses) and conclude that the PM2.5 concentration-response relation may be J-shaped, rather than linear. This possibility implies that the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment may well have produced no (or negative) human health benefits, rather than the trillions of dollars worth of reduced mortalities ascribed to it by EPA; and that attempts to achieve further risk-reduction benefits by further reducing PM2.5 concentrations may be counterproductive."
Many years ago (probably c. 20+) I read an article on breast cancer cases for each of the Counties in America.
The data were plotted against natural background radiation in each corresponding County. The effect of radiation hormesis was clear - above a certain (low level) of exposure the effect of radiation on breast cancer was linear. Below this level, the rate per unit of radiation dropped until it reached a minimum. Further reduction (extrapolating back to zero) showed a rise again in the number of cases.
From this data it was clear (to me at least - a worker in the nuclear industry) that a small level of dose was net positive and the LNT only occurred beyond this level.
I wish I could find the paper ...
When I discussed this with our Health Physicists they were reluctant to accept the obvious. The reason they used was that the National Radiological Protection Board (NRBB) required them to use the more "conservative" LNT model because if Radiation Hormesis was true, we would have a built in extra margin of safety. If it was not true then we would be exposing the public and our workers to an increased risk if we were to relax our "at the boundary fence" emissions. A reasonable argument but no longer supported by the evidence which has accumulating for decades.
How can they say that the radiation had done no harm? Just look at that gruesome picture of the cat.
@dearieme
..How can they say that the radiation had done no harm? Just look at that gruesome picture of the cat....
Cat? That was one of the Chernobyl workers....
The standard metric back in the day - and probably even now - LD50 i.e. 50% mortality per dose was taught by some as a point on a linear scale.
We know that it's too crude in almost all real cases - but extrapolating from silly numbers is where the trouble starts eh? The failed medics an peculating penpushers in Public Health being past masters of the techniques involved.
Some of those jellyfish / rabbit hybrids would brighten up the forest a bit ?
Dearieme: About that 'cat' (good one!)....to me it seems to be a canary - and as such is telling us the 'mine' is safe.
This link is relevant to the issue of radiation hormesis, describing the results when a large apartment complex in Taiwan was built with steel contaminated with cobalt 60.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2477708/
In short, radically reduced incidence of cancer among the 10,000 irradiated residents.
Perhaps we should organise health tours to Chernobyl and Fukushima to partake of the (faintly glowing) waters
quote
The results from these unique data will help society balance the negative impacts to wildlife from chronic radiation exposures against how “the removal of humans alleviates one of the more persistent and ever growing stresses experienced by natural ecosystems”
endquote
Seems to me from that concluding sentence that they still believe small doses of radiation are harmful - just less so than the presence of humans in the same environment. So a lot of you are being somewhat optimistic that common sense or humanism suddenly broke out in academia.
Great summary of the disaster written by Zbigniew Jaworowski on the effects of radiation at the Chernobyl site.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2889503/
Do birds have to go through radiation quarantine control before leaving Chernobyl, and can these birds be identified elsewhere?
Definitely a moment to revisit the brilliant radiation dosage in banana equivalents chart. Pure genius!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose
GC:
Only at night......saving CO2 by reducing the need for streetlighting.
Alan Bates:
This is not a direct link to the reference you cite but says much the same ...
Third, the relationship between radiation dose and breast cancer risk can be described by a straight line which implies that no matter how low the dose, there is some small risk associated with the exposure. Fortunately, for a very small exposure [ ... ], the risk is essentially negligible and would not be related to detectable increases in breast cancer risk even if millions of women were studied.
[ ... ]
Keeping in mind that the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer varies by age at exposure and over time, 100 cGy received by young Western women has been reported in several studies to increase the risk of developing breast cancer by about 40% on average, that is to say, the associated “relative risk” would be 1.40. Thus, this level of exposure would not be sufficient to double a woman’s risk of developing breast cancer later in life (a relative risk of 2.0 indicates a doubling of risk and a dose of 100 cGy is below 2.0). There are several common conditions or life style factors that increase a woman’s risk of breast cancer by about 40%, and these include never being pregnant or not having children (nulliparity), having a very early age at first menstrual period (under age 11 years at menarche), and having a very late age at menopause. Even higher risks are associated with having a family history of breast cancer, namely, having several first degree relatives with breast cancer, possessing a damaged or mutated “breast cancer” gene such as BRCA1, and having a prior history of breast cancer (developing a second breast cancer is related in part to the same factors associated with developing the initial cancer).
http://envirocancer.cornell.edu/factsheet/physical/fs52.radiation.cfm
The whole piece is interesting and informative.
In the US, when they shut down the Rocky Flats nuclear site near Denver in 1989, wildlife populations exploded there, and it is now a wildlife refuge.
Curt:
Of course it did, the humans left, see?
All of you LNT deniers are missing the point that all of these animals will be horribly canerous by the time they are 150 years old.
thinkingscientist, if radioactive birds, provide lighting when it is dark, the North Koreans have a legitimate reason for wanting to join the nuclear powers.
and then there is the saga of the taipei mid 80s cobalt contaminated concrete apartment developments.
the taipei authorities were miffed why people were so healthy (no cancers or reduced by 90% ) in some new residential projects. Untile they found out it was radiation...OOOOOOH big nono in that era as ALL self respecting "progressives" just, you know, "knew" that cannot be right.
if the stats dont fit your belief system you just change the stats if your a leftie..
or you fire the persons who came with the unhappy tidings (like elisabeth warren does)
is not since yesterday that scum lefties twist and mend the numbers, muzzle people, hush everything inconvenient under the rug!
chernobyll nobody found any of the predicted higher cancer rates across europe. why because the cancer rates FELL of course. is hard to find the data you believe in, when your beliefs are WRONG
This whole topic was covered ith similar conclusions by BBC Horizon in July 2006. http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2006/07_july/11/horizon.shtml
Yes but they are suffering. Insert a picture of a malformed bunny here. /sarc
I'm expecting you can order some bear or boar in a Russian restaurant, but if they hate you the meat may have been smuggled from Chernobyl.
@JamesG Oct 6, 2015 at 11:21 AM
The reason for the stupidly high costs of nuclear power plants id due to the LNT based regulations that were forced on the industry by the hippies of the 60s. Those regulations add years to the approval process and cost 10 to 20 times more than is necessary. They then add anything up to 50 times the real cost of the actual building of the plant.
John Silver
Curt:
Of course it did, the humans left, see?
It also seems that when we stop shooting Polar Bears their numbers increase too. Who knew?
There must be a grant and a paper or even a Shukla in this one for somebody. Science eh? Always something new to earn.
If we had spent a few billion on Thorium breeder research and a prototype in the 90s, we would probably have cheap, safe reactors by now.
Several Uranium breeders could be operating now too, to consume spent fuel (nuclear waste). The proliferation argument is bogus, unless it's in Iran.
A way to gauge the benefit dividend of Chernobyl is to correlate cancers of obese with thin people.
Both got the same extra dose, but in one class of individuals more fat was hit and fewer malign cells..
Anyway
Eric, we will be saying exact the same in 25y time.
The Scum Left in the establishment makes choices and sticks to them even if they are wrong.
For example Iran revolution is goooood because Cartah made that, so if there is a green revolution lefties wont help.
Iraq liberation was baaaad so the whole Iraq project was MADE to fail by walking over the corpses of many dead people. It HAD to fail, because lefty scum is NEVER wrong.
Same with nuclear , many people have pointed out the crony capitalism the over regulation the bad influence the old technology the lack of innovation: Lefty Scum WANTS it this way because they made a choice that nuclear is bad.It does not matter for the scum whether it is a wrong choice, their only interest in in keeping up appearances and show they are NEVER wriong.
Lawrence Solomon | September 24, 2010 10:08 PM ET
Will a gamma ray a day keep the doctor away?
"Pic Arctic Woof under CC licence"
This is not the pic you were looking for.